Baby corals disperse with ocean currents, but does this matter for their response to climate change? Our new paper in Global Change Biology with Joanie Kleypas suggests yes.
The Wall Street Journal just ran a feature story on the National Science Foundation grant we have with Eli Fenichel (Yale) and Simon Levin (Princeton):
Changing Migration Patterns Upend East Coast Fishing Industry, by Heather Haddon
With a great set of co-authors, including Eli Fenichel at Yale, we just published a paper in Nature Climate Change showing how to measure the impacts of climate change on wealth. Our previous work, including this, has shown how climate pushes natural resources around. In this new paper, we show that those movements change who gets access to resources, and how those movements affect wealth. As important, or even more important, than the quantity of resources, however, is the quality of a region’s resource management, existing institutions, and fishing regulations. Places with strong resource management stand to gain the most from climate-driven changes in resource distribution.
To make these points, we use a hypothetical example with two fishing ports.
This is one of the initial publications from our NSF Coastal SEES grant examining the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries.
The paper is getting a bit of press as well:
Nearly the whole lab and many collaborators will be at Ocean Sciences in New Orleans next week talking about our work!
- Monday, 9:30-9:45am, R02: Talia Young, “ME11A-07: How Are Fishing Patterns and Fishing Communities Responding to Climate Change? A Test Case from the Northwest Atlantic“
- Monday, 9:45-10:00am, 215-216: Malin Pinsky, “PC11A-08: Can We “Future-Proof” Marine Conservation Planning?“
- Monday, 12:51-12:56pm, Student Lounge/Career Center theater space, Great Hall C: Patrick Flanagan, “The SUBstitute: Truly “immersive” marine science education“
- Monday, 4-6pm, Poster Hall: Jim Morley, “PC14B-2065: Response of Marine Taxa to Climate Variability in the Southeast U.S.“
- Monday, 4-6pm, Poster Hall: Michelle Stuart, “ME14D-0642: Who’s your daddy? Using RADseq to explore survival and paternity in the clownfish, Amphiprion clarkii.“
- Monday, 4-6pm, Poster Hall: Patrick Flanagan, “ME14D-0638: Variable responses in marine community structure to changes in temperature“
- Thursday, 8:45-9:00am, R02: Becca Selden, “ME41A-04: The Influence of Predator-prey Interactions on Climate-induced Range Shifts in Marine Communities“
- Friday, 4-6pm, Poster Hall: Ryan Batt, “ME54A-0910: Evaluating temperature as a driver of changing coastal biodiversity“
- Friday, 4-6pm, Poster Hall: Joanie Kleypas, “PC54B-2254: Impacts of Larval Connectivity on Coral Heat Tolerance“
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, as the saying goes. However, there’s important science to be done trying to reduce those uncertainties for life in the ocean. We have a new paper out today in the ICES Journal of Marine Science to chart that course, from a collaboration with William Cheung and a wonderful group of colleagues in the Nereus program, “Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change.”
This figure shows three of the key sources of uncertainty in any projection, using sea surface temperature as an example: the model used to make the projection (blue), the climate change scenario followed (green), and irreducible variability in the model (orange). The graph shows how natural variability dominates over the next couple decades, but the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions is very important by the end of the century.
Becca and Ryan are off to the “New Frontiers in Understanding Predator-Prey Interactions in a Human-Altered World” Gordon Conference in California next week! They’ll be presenting new analyses of climate impacts on predator-prey interaction strengths (Becca) and of climate impacts on marine community structure (Ryan). Should be fun, and should be warm! Meanwhile, the rest of us are dusting off the sleds for what should be the first good snow storm of the year…
Fishing and climate change: two of the largest human impacts on the ocean. But how do they interact? In a new paper just out in Ecosphere, Emma Fuller, Eleanor Brush, and I use an ecological model to build some intuition. We looked specifically at how fishing affects the ability of species to shift their distributions fast enough to keep up with climate velocity. Two main take-home messages:
- Fishing the leading edge of a species range has the biggest impact (this also tends to be where fishing is unregulated….)
- Marine protected areas (MPAs) can actually make it harder for species to keep up with climate if the MPAs concentrate fishing effort in narrower areas.
EarthWise, a 2-minute NPR science show, just ran a piece on climate change and lobster that featured Malin. It’s well-done, though they made a big deal about lobster moving into Canada. This sounds more dire than some research would suggest: Fogarty et al. 2007 project that Maine waters will still be good for lobster at the end of the current century. On the other hand, Vince Saba is looking at climate models that suggest much more rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine than we had previously thought, so maybe it’s not so far-fetched…
We host a monthly seminar series on climate and fish, which call “Fish Baste,” designed to increase dialogue and collaboration among members of Rutgers, Princeton, U. Maine, and NOAA, as well as among researchers in ecology, social science, and climate science. Format is a short, informal talk, followed by discussion, and meetings are open to anyone.
New schedule for the year is filling up, and it looks great!