Briefing on Capitol Hill

Malin talked about climate change, fish, and fisheries to Congressional staffers, federal employees, and others at a briefing on Capital Hill this past Tuesday (6/28). COMPASS organized the event, with more details here.US_Capitol_from_NW

Climate change, wealth, and a fishy example

IMGP0176With a great set of co-authors, including Eli Fenichel at Yale, we just published a paper in Nature Climate Change showing how to measure the impacts of climate change on wealth. Our previous work, including this, has shown how climate pushes natural resources around. In this new paper, we show that those movements change who gets access to resources, and how those movements affect wealth. As important, or even more important, than the quantity of resources, however, is the quality of a region’s resource management, existing institutions, and fishing regulations. Places with strong resource management stand to gain the most from climate-driven changes in resource distribution.

To make these points, we use a hypothetical example with two fishing ports.

This is one of the initial publications from our NSF Coastal SEES grant examining the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries.

The paper is getting a bit of press as well:

Come see us at Ocean Sciences!

OSM_2016Nearly the whole lab and many collaborators will be at Ocean Sciences in New Orleans next week talking about our work!

 

 

Projecting the future of the ocean

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, as the saying goes. However, there’s important science to be done trying to reduce those uncertainties for life in the ocean. We have a new paper out today in the ICES Journal of Marine Science to chart that course, from a collaboration with William Cheung and a wonderful group of colleagues in the Nereus program, “Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change.”Cheungetal2015_Fig2

This figure shows three of the key sources of uncertainty in any projection, using sea surface temperature as an example: the model used to make the projection (blue), the climate change scenario followed (green), and irreducible variability in the model (orange). The graph shows how natural variability dominates over the next couple decades, but the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions is very important by the end of the century.

Eat or be eaten: off to Gordon Conference

Becca and Ryan are off to the “New Frontiers in Understanding Predator-Prey Interactions in a Human-Altered World” Gordon Conference in California next week! They’ll be presenting new analyses of climate impacts on predator-prey interaction strengths (Becca) and of climate impacts on marine community structure (Ryan). Should be fun, and should be warm! Meanwhile, the rest of us are dusting off the sleds for what should be the first good snow storm of the year…

grizzly_bear_and_salmon

New paper on the interaction of fishing and climate

Fishing and climate change: two of the largest human impacts on the ocean. But how do they interact? In a new paper just out in Ecosphere, Emma Fuller, Eleanor Brush, and I use an ecological model to build some intuition. We looked specifically at how fishing affects the ability of species to shift their distributions fast enough to keep up with climate velocity. Two main take-home messages:

  1. Fishing the leading edge of a species range has the biggest impact (this also tends to be where fishing is unregulated….)
  2. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can actually make it harder for species to keep up with climate if the MPAs concentrate fishing effort in narrower areas.