We have put all the maps behind Morley et al. 2018 PLOS ONE online now on OceanAdapt! These are projections of where 686 marine fish and invertebrate habitats will move over the rest of the century (to 2100) as a result of climate change. Some species are moving up to 1000 miles. Can you find them?
In a new paper published online today in Progress in Oceanography, Diane Thompson and collaborators (including Malin) show how ocean currents transport coral larvae throughout the western Tropical Pacific, and how the barriers posed by these currents have helped shape where species are found.
With a great set of co-authors, including Eli Fenichel at Yale, we just published a paper in Nature Climate Change showing how to measure the impacts of climate change on wealth. Our previous work, including this, has shown how climate pushes natural resources around. In this new paper, we show that those movements change who gets access to resources, and how those movements affect wealth. As important, or even more important, than the quantity of resources, however, is the quality of a region’s resource management, existing institutions, and fishing regulations. Places with strong resource management stand to gain the most from climate-driven changes in resource distribution.
To make these points, we use a hypothetical example with two fishing ports.
This is one of the initial publications from our NSF Coastal SEES grant examining the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries.
This figure shows three of the key sources of uncertainty in any projection, using sea surface temperature as an example: the model used to make the projection (blue), the climate change scenario followed (green), and irreducible variability in the model (orange). The graph shows how natural variability dominates over the next couple decades, but the scenario of greenhouse gas emissions is very important by the end of the century.
We have a new paper out in Proceedings B, “Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse.” Analyzing data from fisheries around the world, we show that patterns in the ocean are nearly the opposite of those on land. Slow-growing species like lions and tigers may be most at risk of extinction on land, but in the ocean, it’s the “rabbits” that are most sensitive. We find that fast-growing species like flounder and sardines are more than three times more likely to collapse when they experience overfishing than their slower-growing cousins. Populations that experience strong climate variability are also more at risk.
Tim Essington also had a nice paper exploring some of these patterns among small pelagic species earlier this year. Definitely worth a read, plus the following discussion (here and here).
It’s hard to believe that we’ve already been in the Philippines for over a week!
Four fifths of the Pinsky Lab is here to conduct a census of clownfish and their host anemones. After two full days of travel by plane, ferry and van, we set to work surveying the coral reefs on the western coast of central Leyte. Surveys are conducted on SCUBA and we work in teams to tag all of the anemones and note the clownfish. Some sites have tons of anemones and others are very sparse with terrible visibility. Each dive is like a 2-3 hour Easter egg hunt and it’s our job to find all of the anemones before we run out of air. Besides a lot of anemones and clownfish, we’ve also seen clownfish eggs, a diverse array of fishes and an uncanny number of sea snakes.
We have hired a boat to take us to our sites, which makes it very convenient for diving. It also means that we spend most of the day on or in the water, including eating our rice and fried chicken lunches off of dive slates and fins! In addition, commuting by boat allows us to admire the spectacular deep valleys and sheer green cliffs of Leyte that are dotted with long ribbon-like waterfalls. Often times, we arrive back to our hostel just as the sun is setting. With a coconut palm lined coastline, it is incredibly picturesque and a beautiful way to round off a long day of diving.
Field season #2 on our NSF RAPID grant to study coral reef ecosystem recovery from Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte, Philippines. We’re continuing benthic cover, fish visual surveys, and invertebrate surveys, but our main focus is on clownfish metapopulation dynamics and identifying the origin of recolonizing individuals (using genetic tags as natural “license plates” to identify source locations). Here’s a photo from our first full day of diving, walking down the road on the campus of the Visayas State University with our dive gear in the amazing “pot pot”. From left to right: Gerry Sucano (field assistant extraordinaire), Michelle Stuart, Patrick Flanagan, and Jennifer Hoey.